Has Trump Disrupted Transnational Populism? Canada's Poilievre May be an Indication

In early February, right-wing populist party leaders gathered in Madrid under the banner of “Make Europe Great Again.” Attendees sported “MEGA” hats for their social media photos. Those present hailed the Trump administration’s flurry of executive orders and its rejection of American political norms and constitutional limits on executive power. “Our friend Trump, the Trump tornado, has changed the world in just a couple of weeks. An era has ended,” declared Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. France’s Marine Le Pen alluded to a form of transatlantic populism, stating, “We are the only ones that can talk with the new Trump administration.”

The gathering featured predictable grievances against immigration, green policies, and cultural issues, including  “population replacement”—a nod to the conspiracy theory that white ethnicities are being deliberately supplanted by non-white immigrants—allegedly ravaging European nations. What stood out, however, was what was missing: a response to the Trump administration’s repeated threats of economic warfare against the European Union. Vox President Santiago Abascal balked when pressed on Trump’s tariff threats, remarking, “The great tariff is the Green Deal and the confiscatory taxes of Brussels and socialist governments across Europe.”

As jubilation over Trump’s victory and policies swept through the European hard right—climaxing with Vice President J.D. Vance’s thinly veiled endorsement of nationalist parties across the continent—a very different reality was taking shape on the other side of the Atlantic. Canadian Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, often compared to Trump in rhetoric and policy, has begun actively distancing himself from his MAGA-style messaging.

Unlike his European counterparts, Poilievre faces a political landscape already upended by Trump’s economic policies. Washington’s tariffs, which have evolved from a threat to an impending reality, could tip Canada into a recession within months, according to some analysts. Quebec alone stands to lose 100,000 jobs, provincial Premier François Legault has warned. “Today, Trump decided to attack us. We must stand up.” The worst economic forecast predicts a long-term structural change that could leave the Canadian economy weak for years to come. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem put the situation in stark terms: “...[I]f tariffs are long-lasting and broad-based, there won’t be a bounceback.”

Beyond economic warfare, Canadians are grappling with Trump’s repeated references to Canada becoming the 51st state. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has openly asked, “What if the U.S. invaded Canada?”

Against this backdrop, Poilievre’s once all-but-inevitable victory in Canada’s next election now looks far from assured. Polls show a tightening race, with some surveys placing Poilievre in a dead heat with former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. The sudden shift in the race’s dynamics highlights an emerging playbook for Western democrats seeking to counter populist politicians in the Trump era.

A surge in Canadian patriotism has made Poilievre’s signature slogan of “everything feels broken” immediately unpopular. Even his sharp rebukes of Justin Trudeau have backfired, as statements like “It’s not America’s fault. It’s our fault. We’re stupid” seem to validate Trump’s own dismissive rhetoric about Canada. Given that many of Trump’s attacks hinge on Canada being “not viable as a country”, Poilievre’s remarks risk reinforcing those claims. Once a darling of the American right, he now faces the near-impossible task of proving he will stand up to a U.S. president he mirrors in style and oftentimes substance—all without alienating the Conservatives who still admire Trump. He must convince voters that he will not capitulate to a like-minded leader whose policies threaten Canadian jobs, even as he echoes Trump’s brand of cultural nationalism for a domestic audience.

Poilievre has attempted to pivot from “Canada is broken” to “Canada First,” but the damage appears done. In a dramatic reversal, the Liberals are being embraced as defenders of national identity and most trusted to deal with Trump—despite Poilievre’s Trumpian parallels.

"Everything feels broken" meets "Canada First"

Populism’s reliance on grievance often leads its advocates to paint their own countries in dystopian terms, hardly the rhetoric that fosters patriotic pride in the politically moderate citizen. While narratives of decline and betrayal have historically fueled populist movements, those same narratives now work against them when their nations come under attack from those they once considered part of their in-group. Even when populists claim to be criticizing political rivals, their sweeping condemnations of governing institutions, widely accepted historical narratives, and cultural liberalism provide an opening for political progressives to claim a mantle the right long sought to monopolize: defenders of national identity.

Europe now finds itself on the verge of a situation eerily similar to Canada’s, with Trump threatening reciprocal tariffs, targeting the EU’s automotive industry, and refusing to acknowledge Denmark’s control over Greenland. Should Europe’s economy fall into Trump’s sights—potentially as soon as April 1st—Europe could see a 1.5% decline in GDP at a time when the bloc is only projected to grow by 1.3% in 2025. Export-heavy economies like Germany will be hit especially hard, with the auto industry already facing contraction. Enter the Alternative for Germany.

Germany’s February elections come at an inopportune time for the Social Democrats—and perhaps even the CDU/CSU. Had the elections been scheduled for summer, the AfD might have been forced to reckon with high-profile endorsements from figures like Elon Musk and J.D. Vance, just as Trump's economic policies began driving up unemployment and worsening the crisis in the auto industry.

While Trump's reception among Europe's hard right has generally been positive, not everyone is equally enthusiastic about his policies. For instance, an MEP from the Danish People's Party bluntly told the president to “F*** off” in response to his provocative actions toward Greenland, a Danish territory.Transnational nationalism has always been a contradiction in terms. A coalition of leaders all insisting on “my country first” is inherently fragile. This reality is reflected in the many schisms dividing far-right factions in the European Parliament. However, before Trump, European populists could embrace Trumpism without the burden of dealing with Trump himself. Now, these parties face the ironic predicament of championing a foreign politician who has no qualms about gutting their economies and “taking other countries’ jobs.”

As European populists continue their romance with their American role model, a new opening emerges for less radical parties to exploit rising tensions between Washington and foreign democracies. Canada’s Liberals recently released a stinging ad against Poilievre, juxtaposing his words with Trump’s, highlighting how the two mirror each other. The optics alone make Poilievre’s attempts to distance himself from Trump appear disingenuous. 

Certainly, part of the leftward shift is due to an unpopular prime minister stepping aside and making room for fresh Liberal leadership. But it is not just Poilievre’s Conservatives losing ground in the polls. The Parti Québécois, whose raison d’être is Quebec’s independence, now feels out of step with a country rallying in the face of American aggression. Canada is already dwarfed by the U.S. in economic, population, and military terms. In this environment, the idea of further shrinking the country by carving off one of its most vital provinces feels almost absurd. Support for Quebec’s independence has dropped to its lowest level in years.

For those seeking to counter populism, the lesson is clear: continually highlight the fact that right-wing movements are often the harshest critics of their own nations. The argument that they are merely attacking political opponents, rather than the country itself, rings hollow after years of denigrating national institutions and cultural attributes—particularly multiculturalism, which many Westerners have embraced and are willing to defend.

Poilievre's ad highlighting Candian lowlights

As the European far right continues rallying around MAGA Republicans at CPAC and other conservative gatherings, both they and their opponents would be wise to note most that Europeans view America transactionally in the Trump era. One recent poll found that a plurality of Europeans in nearly every nation surveyed views the US as a “necessary partner” as opposed to an “ally,” with significant minorities viewing the States as a “rival” or an “adversary.”

Jan-Werner Müller has argued that populists frame politics as a battle between a morally pure “people” and a corrupt, global elite. But the challenge for right-wing populists in the Trump era is that they can no longer sustain this narrative while simultaneously backing the policies of an American billionaire who is actively attacking their economies. In this way, the populist right is becoming precisely what its voters elected them to defeat: a political class out of touch with national interests and unduly beholden to foreign elites.